3/24/14

The Numbers: 3pt Shooting

Going into the playoffs, the three-point shot will likely determine who succeeds and goes onto win the championship.

As per crunchtimeshots.com, the Perth/Wollongong series sees the league's two best teams from range go head to head. Each team has one standout shooter (Clarke for Wollongong, Beal for Perth), surrounded by plenty of competent shooters at all spots. Forman, Davidson, Redhage and Wagstaff are all just as happy outside as they are going to work inside (actually scratch that, Forman is about 100 times happier outside). Each team though will likely live and die on their three-point shooting.

Adelaide is at it's best when it's big men are tormenting teams inside but certainly look much better when it's guards help by stretching the defense. That's rarely the case though, as Adelaide had been the worst three shooting team for most of the season until Sydney took that title right at the regular season's death.

Melbourne and Adelaide are the league's sixth and seventh best (or third and second worst) three point shooting teams. Both teams have guys that can hit from outside but not at a great clip.

Each team only boasts one 40+%  three point shooter (and we're not counting Schenscher). Johnson for Adelaide, Ballinger for Melbourne. The majority of the rest shoot in the 30-40% range.

The good news for Adelaide though is that besides Jason Cadee, the majority of Adelaide's shooters have stepped up since January. Here's the stats for Adelaide's main three -point shooters since January.

Ervin:         21/57 (37%)
Gibson:      17/40 (43%)
Carter:       13/38 (34%)
Johnson:     10/22 (45%)
Cadee:        8/42  (19%)
Petrie:         7/19  (37%)
Creek:         4/11 (36%)

Adelaide will go all-out to stop Goulding in the semi's but he's very difficult to guard with his quick release. If they stop him and Wortho though, history shows they'll win. Adelaide can win off it's inside game but is that much more dangerous when Ervin and Gibson can go on mini-runs. Gibson in particular has been hot of late, going 9/13 from range in the last five games he's played.

I'm tipping DJ and Schensch to shape this series but some overdue hot outside shooting will be more than welcome, especially if the Sixers get through to the GF.


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