1/1/13

The Numbers: 36ers v Crocs

One of the main weaknesses opponents have tried to expose in Adelaide's system of late is it's lack of dangerous outside shooters. It's a complex story, so either pop the kettle on and get ready for a long read, or just watch this video of a guy slipping on an icy sidewalk if you aren't a numbers person.

To the end of Rd 11, the 36ers are the best 3pt shooting team in the league (35%), yet have taken the fewest attempts (189).

Adam Gibson shoots at 35% (20/57)
Anthony Petrie shoots at 39% (7/18)
Stephen Weigh shoots at  45% (21/47)

The biggest standout there is Weigh, who takes just over three attempts a game. If he took six a game and maintained that %, he'd make a big difference to his scoring average and the team's points per game. Weigh is a legitimate 3pt shooter but doesn't take enough of them (and it's not due to a lack of playing time!). He showed that last night versus Townsville, hitting 3 from 3 down the stretch and almost single-handedly keeping Adelaide close.

While Weigh needs to take more shots, the teams also needs some more points from it's back court, in particular Jason Cadee. With Nathan Crosswell not really having an outside game, CJ Massingale having departed and Scott Christopherson being little more than an expensive spectator to date, Cadee needs to start taking and hitting some outside shots to open things up for Adelaide's offense.

Cadee takes just over 2.5 threes a game, hitting at just 31% from three point land. That equates to him hitting about two threes for every three games he plays. Crosswell is shooting at just 20% on threes for the season, having only taken five for the season. Combined they have hit 12/41 for the season. Ouch. Compare that to say New Zealand, who have hit 39 threes (113 attempts) from Daryl Corletto and CJ Bruton and you see just how low that attempt rate is. I'm not saying I want to see Crossy start jacking up multiple threes but it's clear we need to see more attempts, mostly from Weigh and Cadee.

"Hang on!" you're probably thinking. Cadee is just hitting at 31% and you want him to shoot more?

Cadee can hit the three but is often reluctant to even take them...especially at home. These numbers are mind-boggling.

At home (8 games)- 1/13
On the road- (6 games)- 10/23

At home he takes about 1.5 three attempts a game. All you can read from that is that he's reluctant to shoot them at home and not confident when he does. On the road he turns into Reggie Miller, taking almost 4 a game and hitting at excellent 43%. The majority of Cadee's numbers are substantially down at home, suggesting the team needs to prioritise fixing his frame of mind when he hits Adelaide Arena.

Thanks to our friends at CrunchTimeShots.com ,here's Cadee and Crosswell's  %'s broken down by spots on the floor

MID RANGE. Cadee - 31.3% (35.7% from left side below FT line, 0% from right side below FT and 0% from above FT line.

MID RANGE. Crosswell - 21.1% (14.3% from left side below FT, 42.9% from right side below FT line, 0% from above free throw line) 

3 POINT RANGE. Cadee - 30.6% (38.5% from left wing, 27.8% from right wing, 0% from left corner, 50% from right corner)

3 POINT RANGE. Crosswell - 20% (33.3% from left wing, 0% from right wing, 0% on corner threes) 

Those numbers suggest to opponents that leaving these guys open isn't a bad tactic. Team's have been especially laying off Crosswell in the last two games and it has worked, with him hitting just 3 of 12 shots. He has taken 5 and 7 attempts over the last two games too- both season highs.

Cadee even simply taking a few extra outside shots should help keep the defense honest and help open things up for his team mates. It would be great if they went in too.

CrunchTimeShots.com also did a piece recently (17/12/12) featuring the league leaders by floor position. You can read the full piece here but here's the Adelaide players that featured

Mitch Creek- 82.6% from the restricted area in the paint (4th)
Anthony Petrie- 62.5% from mid-range, left side below the FT line (2nd)
Daniel Johnson- 46.7% from mid-range, left side below the FT line (8th)
Steve Weigh- 42.9% from mid-range, right side below the FT line (8th)
Adam Gibson- 39.1% from mid-range, above the FT line (8th)
Daniel Johnson- 66.7% left side above corner three pointer (1st)
Steve Weigh- 43.8%  left side above corner three pointer (5th)
Steve Weigh- 56.3%  right side above corner three pointer (2nd)
Adam Gibson- 45% right side above corner three pointer (5th)

That pretty clearly shows us..........

-We can set up with DJ on the left side and Weigh on the right side where both guys shoot the 3 from their favoured spots
-Gibson is best at the top to right hand wing. *Some more recent stats show him at over 48% from above the free throw line. He shoots the pull up extremely well and it would be good to also see him come off some screens for those shots.
-When Petrie is on, he should be coming on for DJ and being given plenty of shots from his favoured spot down low on the left hand side.

Finally, the CrunchTimeShots guys also did a feature on the ASG 3pt contenders recently and Stephen Weigh's numbers are interesting

3 point shootout


He clearly favours the right hand side for both wing and corner 3's. The corner is a sore spot for all 36ers, with none of our shooters featuring in the Top 10. If Christopherson is a threat from the corner it will make a world of difference to the 36ers offensive structure. Massingale wasn't and it was probably a large part of why he was shown the door.

If Christopherson can hit the three, especially from the corner, it wouldn't surprise to see the 36ers turn their season around. If Weigh,DJ and Cadee can take more threes and get them from their preferred spots, Adelaide will cause plenty of teams headaches in the race for the playoffs.

That is a lot of "if's" though............


*Many thanks to CrunchTimeShots for their help. Visit their site at CrunchTimeShots.com or follow them on Twitter @crunchtimeshots



No comments:

Post a Comment

Please keep your comments sensible. Rude or abusive comments will be removed.

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.