1/10/13

DJ's scoring blues

Jai Bednall wrote a piece today  for Adelaide Now raising Daniel Johnson's scoring drop with coach Marty Clarke. Here's a few reasons Clarke gave for the production drop.

"I wouldn't say his form is terrible or anything, he's just got players and coaches who are starting to put together schemes and plans on how to play him.Our job is to help him evolve and get through that process so he can get back to where he was."

Interesting.

Luke Schenscher's arrival was always going to negatively impact on DJ's offensive production as it would force him to play more outside. DJ has shown he does have a nice touch from range, but he can be downright dominant inside, thanks largely for his ability to get to the free throw line. Let's look at some numbers from this year and last year.

2011/2012
FGA- 13.2  (44.3%)
3PA- 1.6  (37.8%)
FTA- 5.5  (75.8%)

2012/2013
FGA- 14 (38%)
3PA- 2.9 (23%)
FTA- 4.9 (80%)


So this tells us.....
-He's taking 11.1, two point attempts a game this (down on 11.6 from last year)
-He's taking almost double the amount of threes, but shooting a much worse percentage
-He's taking less free throws, but hitting at a better percentage

He's only averaging 1.5pts less than last year which could clearly be fixed by him taking less threes and spending more time in the post.

Besides rebounds, all Johnson's other numbers have declined too with him averaging less assists, steals and blocks than last season and more turnovers. His minutes are only down by less than two minutes from last year, so it's not related to this.

The big issue with the Twin Towers set-up is that Schensch works best with the offense being run through him. DJ doesn't have the passing skills of Big Luke but needs a lot of touches down low to be most effective. Johnson's game would flourish being flanked by a brute at the 4 or 5 and an athletic, defensive minded small forward.

I don't buy into the opposition scouting reason given by Clarke, in my opinion the scouting report on DJ is "play him physical and annoy the hell out of him". The stronger,physical guys love guarding him on the low block but hate when DJ makes them play him out to 25 feet. Undersized forwards/centres hate having to deal with him in the post but are happy to let him camp outside on the three line.

The best way DJ can help the offense would be to slow down on the three attempts and for his team mates to look for him more when he's given the low block when Schensch is off the floor. 

Simple.

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